KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

68%

51%

35%

26%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.9¢Risks 62.85u

WN2NO 37.1¢Risks 37.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.15u · WN2 −37.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	72.5%	73.1%	59.7%	—	24.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	82.5%	70.9%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	50.0%	62.7%	50.8%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	44.4%	9.3%	24.8%	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	20.7%	12.5%	41.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	11.5%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	56.1%	41.3%	29.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	44.6%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	38.2%	31.4%	28.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	30.9%	12.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.9%	38.5%	36.6%	—	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	33.5%	26.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	42.8%	4.4%	17.0%	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	46.8%	16.9%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	44.5%	44.5%	18.3%	0.0%	21.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	38.9%	48.9%	5.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	47.7%	21.5%	6.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	48.8%	24.4%	7.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	38.9%	19.9%	4.9%	0.9%	19.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	36.1%	28.0%	9.8%	—	18.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	34.3%	36.8%	21.0%	3.7%	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	33.8%	43.1%	3.7%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	30.5%	50.0%	7.3%	6.8%	16.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	42.5%	56.0%	3.7%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	42.1%	22.6%	0.2%	7.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	28.1%	21.6%	7.3%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9960
ICON	68%	69.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4665
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	51%	67.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2591
IFS HRES	35%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1239
National Blend	29%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0835
WeatherNext 2	26%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0671

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗