KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

68%

51%

35%

26%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.9¢Risks 62.85u

WN2NO 37.1¢Risks 37.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.15u · WN2 −37.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:27+00:00	47.6%	97.6%	32.1%	40.4%	41.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	47.6%	97.6%	31.2%	40.4%	41.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	47.6%	97.6%	31.2%	40.4%	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	47.6%	97.6%	31.2%	40.4%	41.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	47.6%	97.6%	31.2%	40.4%	41.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	48.3%	97.6%	31.2%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	48.3%	97.6%	31.2%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	48.3%	97.6%	31.2%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	48.3%	97.6%	31.2%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	48.3%	99.8%	26.0%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	48.3%	99.8%	26.0%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	48.3%	99.8%	26.0%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	48.3%	99.8%	26.0%	35.2%	68.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	50.9%	99.8%	25.9%	35.2%	68.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	50.9%	99.8%	25.9%	35.2%	68.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	78.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9960
ICON	68%	69.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.4665
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	51%	67.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2591
IFS HRES	35%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1239
National Blend	29%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0835
WeatherNext 2	26%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0671

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗