KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

40%

35%

34%

24%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

WN2NO 39.9¢Risks 39.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.95u · WN2 −39.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	48.7%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	65.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	73.5%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	66.4%	67.0%	52.8%	—	19.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	77.4%	64.3%	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	42.4%	55.3%	43.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	36.7%	6.4%	18.9%	—	24.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	15.2%	8.7%	33.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	7.8%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	47.4%	33.0%	22.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	35.9%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	29.7%	23.7%	20.9%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	23.1%	8.4%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	25.5%	29.6%	27.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	24.9%	19.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	33.0%	2.5%	11.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	36.5%	11.1%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	34.1%	34.1%	11.9%	0.0%	14.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	28.6%	37.8%	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	36.3%	14.0%	3.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	37.0%	16.0%	4.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	27.6%	12.4%	2.5%	0.4%	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	24.8%	18.2%	5.3%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	23.0%	25.1%	12.7%	1.7%	6.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	30.0%	1.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	19.1%	35.8%	3.5%	3.2%	8.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	28.5%	41.0%	1.5%	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	27.6%	12.5%	0.1%	3.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	16.0%	11.5%	3.1%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9254
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3136
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2905
AIFS Single	40%	67.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1568
ICON	35%	66.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1211
IFS HRES	34%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1149
WeatherNext 2	24%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0571

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗