KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

40%

35%

34%

24%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

WN2NO 39.9¢Risks 39.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.95u · WN2 −39.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:28:03+00:00	12.9%	76.1%	47.6%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	12.9%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	12.9%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	12.9%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:15+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T03:45:25+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:55+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	26.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	24.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	24.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	17.5%	76.1%	24.5%	31.8%	75.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:40+00:00	39.5%	76.1%	24.5%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	39.5%	76.1%	24.5%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	39.5%	76.1%	24.5%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	39.5%	76.1%	24.5%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:20+00:00	39.5%	76.1%	24.5%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:15+00:00	39.5%	95.1%	32.1%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	39.5%	95.1%	32.1%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	39.5%	95.1%	32.1%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	44.7%	95.1%	32.1%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	44.0%	94.8%	32.2%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T15:12:12+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	32.2%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	32.2%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	32.2%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	27.6%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	27.6%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	27.6%	29.2%	75.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	27.6%	48.2%	64.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	27.6%	48.2%	64.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	27.6%	48.2%	64.0%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	27.6%	48.2%	64.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	23.0%	94.4%	27.6%	48.2%	64.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	23.1%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	23.1%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	23.1%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	28.6%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	28.6%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	28.6%	94.4%	14.6%	48.2%	63.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	32.7%	96.3%	13.5%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	32.7%	96.2%	13.5%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	32.7%	96.2%	20.9%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	32.7%	96.2%	20.9%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	32.7%	96.2%	20.9%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	32.7%	96.2%	20.9%	24.4%	56.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	20.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	20.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	20.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	20.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	36.5%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	39.6%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	39.6%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	39.6%	96.2%	23.9%	33.9%	34.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9254
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3136
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2905
AIFS Single	40%	67.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1568
ICON	35%	66.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1211
IFS HRES	34%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1149
WeatherNext 2	24%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0571

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗