KPDX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.2¢Risks 49.20u

WN2NO 50.8¢Risks 50.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.80u · WN2 −50.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	30.7%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	46.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	54.7%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	45.8%	46.5%	32.3%	—	8.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	58.0%	42.7%	—	11.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	22.2%	33.0%	22.8%	—	10.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	17.4%	1.7%	6.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.9%	2.3%	14.8%	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	23.4%	13.6%	7.7%	—	5.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	15.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	11.0%	7.9%	6.6%	—	4.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.4%	1.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.2%	10.2%	9.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.6%	5.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.3%	0.3%	2.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.7%	2.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.9%	10.9%	2.3%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.9%	12.3%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.0%	2.5%	0.3%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.8%	2.9%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.3%	1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.9%	3.0%	0.5%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	4.6%	1.6%	0.1%	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.5%	5.8%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.5%	7.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.4%	8.6%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	1.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	79.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9274
AIFS Single	13%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0177
IFS HRES	6%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0040
NWS forecast	4%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0014
ICON	3%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0011
WeatherNext 2	2%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0004
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261017-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 10 · 22:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗