KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

74%

56%

49%

28%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	11.2%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	74.3%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	77.2%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	45.1%	54.2%	3.8%	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	24.9%	22.6%	31.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	46.2%	39.4%	33.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	48.4%	40.5%	20.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	53.3%	49.2%	33.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	19.6%	73.1%	36.3%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	29.4%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	40.0%	35.6%	21.6%	—	60.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	37.9%	29.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	49.0%	40.4%	35.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	19.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	31.2%	35.9%	50.0%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	15.0%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	22.1%	13.1%	55.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	8.7%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	6.1%	19.1%	44.2%	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	8.2%	28.3%	30.4%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	33.1%	29.8%	34.2%	35.4%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	39.8%	37.3%	42.3%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	39.4%	28.4%	38.1%	35.6%	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	39.0%	33.8%	39.0%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	35.8%	35.8%	37.2%	44.2%	55.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	38.1%	32.5%	45.5%	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	46.8%	53.2%	36.1%	50.0%	40.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	17.0%	51.6%	21.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
IFS Ensemble	74%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0681
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	56%	65.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	49%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2611
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗