KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

74%

56%

49%

28%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:28+00:00	37.4%	73.2%	43.1%	51.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	37.4%	73.2%	31.5%	51.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	37.4%	73.2%	31.5%	51.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	37.4%	73.2%	31.5%	51.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	37.4%	73.2%	31.5%	51.2%	66.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	46.8%	73.2%	31.5%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	46.8%	73.2%	31.5%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	46.8%	73.2%	31.5%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	46.8%	73.2%	31.5%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	46.8%	69.1%	42.2%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	46.8%	69.1%	42.2%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	46.8%	69.1%	42.2%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	46.8%	69.1%	42.2%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	39.6%	69.1%	42.3%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:52+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.2%	65.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	65.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	65.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	39.6%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	65.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	69.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	69.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	69.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	42.3%	33.5%	69.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	42.3%	15.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	29.7%	14.9%	69.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	29.7%	14.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	46.8%	68.7%	29.7%	14.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	50.8%	68.7%	29.7%	14.9%	69.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	50.8%	68.7%	29.7%	14.9%	69.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	80.2%	68.4%	60.6%	75.2%	54.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	80.2%	68.4%	60.6%	75.2%	54.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	80.2%	68.4%	67.6%	75.2%	54.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	80.2%	68.4%	67.6%	75.2%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	80.2%	68.4%	67.6%	75.2%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:29+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	67.6%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	67.6%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	67.6%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	67.6%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	77.2%	68.4%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	77.2%	72.1%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	77.2%	72.1%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	78.0%	72.0%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	78.0%	72.0%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	78.0%	73.3%	63.9%	50.9%	56.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	63.9%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	63.9%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	63.9%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	63.9%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	80.0%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	60.5%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	76.6%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	38.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	79.1%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	79.1%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	79.1%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	79.1%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	79.1%	73.3%	59.4%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	79.1%	71.5%	57.7%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	79.1%	71.5%	57.7%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	79.1%	71.5%	57.7%	48.2%	19.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	78.4%	71.5%	57.7%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	78.4%	71.4%	57.7%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	57.7%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	57.7%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	57.7%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	78.4%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	19.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	5.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	5.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	5.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	65.1%	38.5%	5.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	65.1%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	76.9%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	76.2%	73.7%	63.9%	40.4%	5.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	79.8%	73.7%	63.9%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	79.8%	73.7%	63.9%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	79.8%	73.7%	63.9%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	79.8%	73.7%	63.9%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	79.8%	73.7%	63.9%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	79.8%	73.3%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	79.8%	73.3%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	79.8%	73.3%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	81.2%	73.3%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	81.3%	72.9%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	66.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	63.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	63.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	63.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	81.3%	74.0%	63.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	78.4%	74.0%	63.4%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	78.4%	74.0%	63.4%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	78.4%	74.0%	63.4%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	78.4%	74.0%	63.4%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	78.4%	74.0%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	78.4%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	78.4%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	78.4%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	76.9%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	76.9%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	76.9%	73.9%	55.5%	48.9%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
IFS Ensemble	74%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0681
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
WeatherNext 2	56%	65.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	49%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2611
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗