KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

39%

29%

12%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

ICONNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.40u · ICON −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	6.4%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	46.9%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	62.8%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	65.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	31.7%	40.3%	1.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	14.8%	13.2%	19.4%	—	22.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	31.6%	25.8%	20.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	33.0%	26.1%	10.8%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	36.9%	33.0%	19.5%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	0.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	9.7%	57.0%	21.4%	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	16.1%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	23.7%	20.3%	10.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	21.7%	15.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	30.4%	23.2%	19.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	8.4%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	15.7%	19.0%	30.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	5.8%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	9.4%	4.7%	34.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	4.0%	2.7%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	1.7%	7.2%	23.3%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	2.3%	11.9%	13.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	14.4%	12.4%	15.1%	15.9%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	18.2%	16.6%	20.0%	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	17.3%	10.7%	16.5%	14.9%	24.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	16.4%	13.2%	16.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	13.8%	13.8%	14.6%	19.1%	28.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	14.4%	11.2%	19.2%	—	18.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	19.2%	23.8%	12.5%	21.4%	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	3.7%	21.6%	5.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	59%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3481
IFS Ensemble	58%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3352
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
WeatherNext 2	39%	66.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
IFS HRES	29%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0818
ICON	12%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗