KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

39%

29%

12%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

ICONNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.40u · ICON −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:02:01+00:00	19.5%	53.1%	15.1%	43.1%	57.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	19.5%	53.1%	15.1%	43.1%	57.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	19.5%	53.1%	16.1%	43.1%	57.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	19.5%	53.1%	16.1%	43.1%	57.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	19.5%	53.1%	16.1%	43.1%	57.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	16.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	16.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	16.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	16.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	16.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	19.8%	53.1%	14.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	19.8%	55.9%	14.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	19.8%	55.9%	14.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	25.5%	55.9%	14.1%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	25.5%	55.8%	14.2%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	25.5%	55.8%	14.2%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	25.5%	54.9%	14.2%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	25.5%	54.9%	27.0%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	25.5%	54.9%	27.0%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	25.5%	54.9%	27.0%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	25.5%	54.9%	27.0%	38.6%	37.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	23.7%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	24.3%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	24.3%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	24.3%	54.9%	27.0%	39.2%	55.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00	59.0%	57.9%	29.1%	28.6%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	59.0%	57.9%	39.2%	28.6%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	59.0%	57.9%	39.2%	28.6%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	59.0%	57.9%	39.2%	28.6%	12.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	59.0%	57.9%	39.2%	28.6%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	59%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3481
IFS Ensemble	58%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3352
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
WeatherNext 2	39%	66.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
IFS HRES	29%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0818
ICON	12%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0149

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗