KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 12.8¢Risks 12.85u

ICONNO 87.1¢Risks 87.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +87.15u · ICON −87.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	23.9%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	37.2%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	39.3%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.9%	17.1%	0.2%	—	5.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.8%	3.2%	5.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	10.7%	7.8%	5.6%	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.8%	7.5%	2.1%	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.0%	10.1%	4.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.0%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.5%	24.1%	4.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	2.9%	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	5.0%	3.9%	1.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	6.8%	4.4%	3.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.9%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	2.1%	2.8%	6.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.4%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.8%	0.3%	6.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.1%	0.4%	2.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	0.8%	1.1%	1.2%	1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	1.2%	1.6%	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.1%	0.5%	1.0%	0.9%	2.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.9%	0.6%	0.9%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%	1.0%	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%	0.9%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	1.1%	0.3%	0.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	25%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0605
AIFS Single	22%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0467
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
IFS HRES	5%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0026
WeatherNext 2	5%	66.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0025
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0005
ICON	1%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗