KPDX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 12.8¢Risks 12.85u

ICONNO 87.1¢Risks 87.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +87.15u · ICON −87.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:40+00:00	11.5%	32.6%	5.2%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	11.5%	32.6%	5.2%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	11.5%	32.6%	5.2%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	11.5%	32.6%	5.2%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:20+00:00	11.5%	32.6%	5.2%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:15+00:00	11.5%	27.2%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	11.5%	27.2%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	11.5%	27.2%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	8.6%	27.2%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	8.7%	27.2%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:12+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	6.7%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	5.1%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	5.1%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	8.7%	24.0%	5.1%	15.6%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	5.1%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	5.1%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	5.1%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	5.1%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	5.1%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	2.5%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T04:02:02+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.3%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.6%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.6%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	5.8%	24.0%	3.6%	21.1%	41.2%
2026-10-12T07:49:02+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	3.6%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	3.6%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	3.6%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	3.6%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	3.6%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	5.4%	24.0%	2.5%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	5.4%	19.9%	2.5%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	5.4%	19.9%	2.5%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	7.9%	19.9%	2.5%	18.4%	18.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	7.9%	19.3%	2.6%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	7.9%	19.3%	6.8%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	7.9%	19.3%	6.8%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	7.9%	19.3%	6.8%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	7.9%	19.3%	6.8%	18.4%	18.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	7.1%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:29+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	6.8%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	3.6%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	3.6%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	3.6%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	7.4%	19.3%	3.6%	18.8%	33.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	9.6%	19.3%	3.6%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	9.6%	19.3%	3.6%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	9.6%	19.3%	3.6%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	9.6%	19.3%	3.6%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	9.6%	15.9%	4.8%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	9.6%	15.9%	4.8%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	9.6%	15.9%	4.8%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	9.6%	15.9%	4.8%	7.0%	27.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	7.0%	15.9%	4.9%	7.0%	27.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.0%	27.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:52+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.0%	27.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	27.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	27.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	27.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	7.0%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	27.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	4.9%	7.3%	30.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	4.9%	2.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	9.8%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	11.7%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	30.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	13.9%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	4.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	13.9%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	4.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	13.9%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	4.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	13.9%	14.7%	2.3%	1.9%	4.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:41+00:00	13.9%	14.7%	2.3%	4.5%	4.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	13.9%	20.6%	3.8%	4.5%	4.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	13.9%	20.6%	3.8%	4.5%	4.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	13.9%	20.6%	3.8%	4.5%	4.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	23.0%	20.6%	3.8%	4.5%	4.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	23.0%	20.7%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	23.0%	20.2%	3.8%	4.5%	4.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	32.4%	20.2%	3.8%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	32.4%	20.2%	3.8%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	32.4%	20.2%	3.8%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	32.4%	20.2%	3.8%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	32.4%	20.2%	3.8%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	8.9%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	12.4%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	12.4%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	32.4%	20.4%	12.4%	30.2%	13.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:29+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	12.4%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	12.4%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	12.4%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	12.4%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	25.7%	20.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	25.7%	20.6%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	25.7%	20.6%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	26.4%	20.7%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	26.4%	20.7%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	26.4%	22.4%	7.7%	9.3%	8.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	28.7%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.5%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	24.9%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	3.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	25.4%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	25.4%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	25.4%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	25.4%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	25.4%	22.4%	6.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	25.4%	21.3%	4.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	25.4%	21.3%	4.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	25.4%	21.3%	4.1%	8.3%	0.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	24.6%	21.3%	4.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	24.6%	21.4%	4.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	24.6%	23.5%	4.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	4.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	4.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	24.6%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	6.1%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	23.1%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	22.3%	23.4%	5.7%	4.4%	0.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	24.7%	23.4%	5.7%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	24.7%	23.4%	5.7%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	24.7%	23.4%	5.7%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	24.7%	23.4%	5.7%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	24.7%	23.4%	5.7%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	24.7%	23.9%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	24.7%	23.9%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	24.7%	23.9%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	26.3%	23.9%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	26.3%	24.3%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	5.0%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	4.3%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	4.3%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	4.3%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	4.3%	4.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	23.1%	24.6%	4.3%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	23.1%	24.6%	4.3%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	23.1%	24.6%	4.3%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	23.1%	24.6%	4.3%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00	21.6%	24.6%	2.7%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	21.6%	24.6%	5.0%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	21.6%	24.6%	5.0%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	21.6%	24.6%	5.0%	5.1%	1.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	21.6%	24.6%	5.0%	5.1%	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	25%	68.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0605
AIFS Single	22%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0467
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
IFS HRES	5%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0026
WeatherNext 2	5%	66.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0025
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0005
ICON	1%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261018-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗