KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

80%

78%

76%

72%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 82.3¢Risks 82.35u

HRESNO 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.65u · HRES −17.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	44.6%	54.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	74.8%	35.6%	45.1%	—	68.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	69.0%	64.3%	70.3%	—	62.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	47.7%	53.0%	64.2%	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	63.3%	84.6%	67.7%	—	71.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	90.3%	65.5%	77.5%	—	82.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	26.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	49.1%	90.6%	79.2%	—	73.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	65.8%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	62.7%	91.7%	78.4%	—	68.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	80.4%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	81.0%	89.3%	89.8%	—	71.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	70.1%	82.3%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	75.7%	89.7%	90.1%	—	71.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	81.0%	94.5%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	75.3%	90.1%	91.0%	1.4%	80.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	87.1%	89.3%	47.8%	—	83.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	94.6%	93.2%	96.2%	74.0%	83.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	92.2%	93.0%	96.5%	—	83.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	97.5%	92.5%	97.2%	—	86.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.2%	98.1%	94.7%	—	92.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	97.4%	99.0%	92.6%	96.3%	91.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.5%	99.0%	96.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	98.4%	99.9%	96.0%	98.7%	97.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.6%	99.9%	94.0%	—	96.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.8%	100.0%	99.6%	99.5%	99.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	100.0%	99.4%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	66.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0048
WeatherNext 2	80%	60.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0388
AIFS Single	78%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0467
ICON	76%	60.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0552
IFS HRES	72%	59.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0807
National Blend	71%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0847
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2134

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗