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KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
93%
WN2
80%
AIFS
78%
ICON
76%
HRES
72%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 82.3¢Risks 82.35u
VS
HRESNO 17.6¢Risks 17.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.65u · HRES −17.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 72.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 78.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 74.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 76.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0010-14 03:0010-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:00:07+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:0072.7%97.7%77.7%74.4%68.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:0089.1%97.7%77.7%74.4%76.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:0089.1%97.7%77.7%74.4%76.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0089.1%97.7%77.7%74.4%76.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:0089.1%97.7%77.7%74.4%76.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:0089.1%97.7%77.7%71.6%76.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:0089.1%93.1%80.2%71.6%76.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0089.1%93.1%80.2%71.6%76.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:0089.1%93.1%80.2%71.6%76.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0078.5%93.1%80.2%71.6%76.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0078.4%93.1%80.3%71.6%76.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble93%66.9°F7.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0048
WeatherNext 280%60.0°F4.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.0388
AIFS Single78%60.4°F5.0°F2026-10-14 06:000.0467
ICON76%60.8°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0552
IFS HRES72%59.8°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0807
National Blend71%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 06:000.0847
NWS forecast54%57.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.2134

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 57°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗