KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

87%

73%

67%

63%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

AIFSNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.30u · AIFS −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	56.6%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	41.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	31.8%	40.6%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	62.4%	23.5%	31.7%	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	55.1%	50.0%	56.6%	—	48.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	33.0%	38.0%	49.2%	—	48.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	47.6%	73.2%	52.4%	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	81.0%	49.2%	63.1%	—	70.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	14.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	32.2%	81.0%	64.6%	—	57.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	48.2%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	44.5%	82.2%	62.7%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	64.8%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	65.2%	77.5%	78.2%	—	52.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	51.0%	66.5%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	57.2%	77.3%	78.1%	—	52.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	63.5%	85.6%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	55.5%	77.0%	78.7%	0.3%	61.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	71.4%	75.1%	26.7%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	84.7%	81.7%	88.4%	52.3%	64.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	79.2%	80.9%	88.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	91.0%	79.2%	90.0%	—	68.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	92.8%	92.3%	83.4%	—	79.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	89.9%	95.0%	78.0%	86.6%	76.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	89.6%	95.0%	86.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	92.2%	98.8%	84.6%	93.2%	88.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	97.1%	99.2%	78.7%	—	84.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	98.4%	99.8%	96.6%	96.3%	94.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	97.9%	99.6%	95.1%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	66.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0125
ICON	87%	65.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0159
WeatherNext 2	73%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0740
IFS HRES	67%	61.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1063
AIFS Single	63%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1399
National Blend	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2007
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2134

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗