KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

82%

78%

73%

54%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 26.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.05u · ICON −26.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	34.8%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	26.0%	34.2%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	55.6%	18.4%	25.7%	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	47.8%	42.7%	49.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	26.4%	30.9%	41.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	39.7%	66.3%	44.4%	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	74.9%	40.9%	55.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	9.9%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	24.8%	74.5%	56.1%	—	49.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	39.3%	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	35.6%	75.6%	53.7%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	55.7%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.8%	69.6%	70.4%	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	41.1%	57.0%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	46.9%	68.8%	69.7%	—	41.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	53.2%	78.7%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	44.5%	67.9%	69.9%	0.1%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	61.1%	65.4%	18.3%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	76.7%	73.0%	81.7%	40.8%	53.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	69.6%	71.7%	81.7%	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	84.9%	69.2%	83.4%	—	56.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	87.2%	86.5%	74.1%	—	68.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	82.7%	90.5%	66.9%	78.0%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	81.8%	90.2%	76.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	85.4%	97.1%	74.4%	87.0%	79.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	93.5%	97.8%	66.2%	—	74.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	95.9%	99.2%	92.3%	91.7%	88.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	94.7%	98.6%	89.3%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0037
AIFS Single	82%	63.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	78%	62.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0484
IFS HRES	73%	62.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0708
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
ICON	54%	59.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2116

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗