KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

82%

78%

73%

54%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 26.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.05u · ICON −26.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	54.8%	85.8%	64.2%	60.9%	83.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	54.8%	85.8%	64.2%	60.9%	83.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	54.8%	85.8%	60.6%	60.9%	83.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	54.8%	85.8%	60.6%	60.9%	83.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	54.8%	85.8%	60.6%	60.9%	83.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:29+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	60.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	60.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	60.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	60.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	62.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	57.8%	85.8%	62.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	57.8%	93.1%	62.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	57.8%	93.1%	62.6%	62.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	54.3%	92.8%	62.6%	62.6%	38.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	54.3%	92.8%	62.6%	62.6%	38.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	74.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	74.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	74.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	84.2%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	62.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	54.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	54.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	73.3%	50.9%	54.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	73.3%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	83.7%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	81.9%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	81.9%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	81.9%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	81.9%	93.9%	78.0%	73.4%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0037
AIFS Single	82%	63.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0328
WeatherNext 2	78%	62.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0484
IFS HRES	73%	62.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0708
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
ICON	54%	59.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2116

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗