KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.4¢Risks 15.45u

WN2NO 84.5¢Risks 84.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.55u · WN2 −84.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	1.2%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.6%	0.2%	0.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	1.4%	2.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	3.8%	1.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.1%	0.6%	1.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	3.9%	1.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	3.2%	0.7%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	1.5%	1.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.9%	1.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%	1.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.7%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.8%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	2.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	30%	66.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0906
ICON	19%	65.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0365
IFS HRES	5%	61.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	2%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0003
National Blend	2%	61.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	<1%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	60.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗