KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.4¢Risks 15.45u

WN2NO 84.5¢Risks 84.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.55u · WN2 −84.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:03+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	1.5%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	1.5%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	1.5%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	1.5%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	0.3%	20.9%	1.5%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	0.6%	26.0%	0.8%	2.7%	14.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	0.6%	26.0%	0.8%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	0.6%	26.0%	0.8%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	0.8%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	2.7%	14.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.3%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	0.6%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:29+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.6%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.2%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.2%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.2%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	1.2%	16.0%	28.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	1.5%	25.4%	1.2%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	1.5%	25.4%	1.2%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	1.5%	25.4%	1.2%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	1.5%	25.4%	1.2%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	1.5%	21.8%	0.9%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	1.5%	21.8%	0.9%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	1.5%	21.8%	0.9%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	1.5%	21.8%	0.9%	7.2%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	0.5%	21.8%	0.9%	7.2%	13.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	1.1%	7.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	1.1%	7.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	1.1%	7.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	5.5%	21.2%	1.1%	7.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	6.1%	30.4%	1.3%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	6.1%	30.4%	1.3%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	6.1%	30.4%	1.3%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	6.1%	30.4%	1.3%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	6.1%	30.4%	1.3%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	6.1%	30.1%	1.0%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	6.1%	30.1%	1.0%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	6.1%	30.1%	1.0%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	1.8%	30.1%	0.8%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	1.8%	30.1%	0.8%	5.2%	19.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	1.8%	30.1%	0.8%	5.2%	19.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	30%	66.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0906
ICON	19%	65.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0365
IFS HRES	5%	61.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	2%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0003
National Blend	2%	61.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	<1%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	60.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗