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KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
HRES
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.3¢Risks 3.63u
VS
EPSNO 92.8¢Risks 46.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.38u · EPS −46.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 48.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 44.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 28.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 47.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 28.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 97.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 17.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0082.8%————63.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0080.7%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0039.5%————5.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:006.6%————6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.5%————4.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0010.8%————7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:005.3%————11.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:006.4%————9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0026.1%————5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0045.7%————10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0057.7%————17.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0014.0%————17.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0062.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0030.3%————18.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0021.8%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0054.8%—26.7%——25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0070.1%—5.4%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0049.4%————30.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0054.5%—22.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0062.8%—39.7%——31.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0059.9%—35.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0077.7%48.6%39.3%——27.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0072.2%—54.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0072.5%19.9%57.7%47.9%—25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0074.1%—41.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0055.1%24.9%29.1%23.7%—30.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0069.3%—53.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0069.7%44.7%39.4%28.9%—29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0049.2%—8.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0026.1%29.5%11.1%25.5%—22.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0041.9%—53.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0023.2%6.6%27.2%16.8%—12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0044.9%66.6%42.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0041.3%42.2%6.2%15.1%—19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0045.5%26.4%4.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0044.5%28.9%5.3%15.4%—23.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0019.0%13.7%17.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0016.5%13.1%6.8%6.5%—21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0013.0%21.9%11.9%——16.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0012.8%17.0%6.4%6.1%—20.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0013.8%12.7%3.1%——15.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.2%16.9%5.9%5.3%97.2%13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:006.3%7.9%6.3%41.0%—10.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:007.6%2.9%3.8%1.9%17.5%10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:006.2%4.3%3.7%1.7%—10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:004.6%1.1%4.0%1.3%—8.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:004.3%0.8%0.8%2.6%—3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.6%1.1%0.4%3.7%1.7%4.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.5%1.1%0.4%1.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.2%0.6%0.0%1.8%0.5%1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.8%0.1%0.0%2.7%—1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.0%0.2%—0.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON13%59.9°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:000.0180
IFS HRES6%62.3°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.0041
AIFS Single3%63.4°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:000.0010
National Blend3%61.0°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0009
NWS forecast3%62.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.0008
WeatherNext 22%62.2°F3.4°F2026-10-16 18:000.0005
IFS Ensemble1%67.9°F5.4°F2026-10-16 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗