KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.3¢Risks 3.63u

EPSNO 92.8¢Risks 46.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.38u · EPS −46.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:29+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	10.7%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	10.7%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	10.7%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	10.7%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	8.1%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	8.1%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	14.3%	1.4%	8.1%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	14.3%	1.4%	8.1%	13.1%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	16.3%	1.5%	8.1%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	16.3%	1.5%	8.1%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	8.1%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	8.1%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	7.3%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	7.3%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	7.3%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	16.3%	1.2%	7.3%	13.1%	29.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.3%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.3%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.3%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.3%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.7%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	19.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	7.0%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	3.3%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	3.3%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	3.4%	1.2%	3.3%	41.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	2.6%	1.2%	3.3%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	2.6%	1.2%	3.3%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.3%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.3%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.3%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	2.6%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	9.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	13.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	13.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	13.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.5%	18.0%	13.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	3.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.5%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.3%	6.4%	13.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	3.2%	1.1%	2.3%	6.4%	13.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	59.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0180
IFS HRES	6%	62.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0041
AIFS Single	3%	63.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0010
National Blend	3%	61.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0009
NWS forecast	3%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0008
WeatherNext 2	2%	62.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0005
IFS Ensemble	1%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗