KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

79%

75%

59%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

HRESNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.10u · HRES −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	19.8%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	8.5%	10.2%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	86.3%	11.5%	25.2%	—	61.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	65.7%	95.8%	64.3%	—	72.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	83.5%	85.4%	73.6%	—	87.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	68.4%	90.3%	87.3%	—	85.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	72.1%	88.0%	63.1%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	7.0%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	99.2%	82.2%	92.0%	—	80.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	77.8%	92.2%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	87.6%	76.3%	92.7%	—	88.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.4%	86.8%	—	—	92.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	95.8%	97.6%	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.1%	97.8%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	98.2%	99.7%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	13.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	63.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	62.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	64.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	61.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	63.5°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗