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KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
WN2
80%
ICON
79%
EPS
75%
HRES
59%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u
VS
HRESNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.10u · HRES −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00ICON: 79.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 79.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0010-14 03:0010-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:00:08+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:0076.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%85.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:0082.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%79.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:0082.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%79.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0082.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%79.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:0082.2%77.9%80.0%58.1%79.5%
2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:0082.2%77.9%80.0%59.0%79.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:0082.2%74.9%80.2%59.0%79.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0082.2%74.9%80.2%59.0%79.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:0082.2%74.9%80.2%59.0%79.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0080.7%74.9%80.2%59.0%79.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:0080.8%74.8%79.9%59.0%79.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%63.2°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%62.4°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON79%64.3°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend78%61.0°F3.2°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%63.5°F7.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%60.0°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗