KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

87%

86%

78%

71%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.2¢Risks 82.25u

EPSNO 17.8¢Risks 17.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.75u · EPS −17.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	31.3%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	15.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	6.2%	7.5%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	82.0%	8.5%	19.9%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	58.7%	93.8%	57.3%	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	78.4%	80.5%	67.0%	—	82.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	61.0%	86.4%	82.6%	—	80.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	64.7%	83.2%	55.0%	—	74.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	4.5%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	98.5%	75.9%	88.2%	—	73.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	70.6%	88.4%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	82.2%	68.6%	89.0%	—	82.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	98.9%	81.0%	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.5%	93.2%	95.8%	—	97.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.4%	96.0%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	96.7%	99.4%	0.0%	99.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.9%	99.5%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.5%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	8.3%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	67.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	67.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	63.5°F	7.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗