KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

87%

86%

78%

71%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 82.2¢Risks 82.25u

EPSNO 17.8¢Risks 17.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +17.75u · EPS −17.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	78.3%	74.2%	66.6%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	78.3%	74.2%	66.6%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	78.3%	74.2%	66.6%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	78.3%	74.2%	66.6%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	78.3%	73.4%	68.5%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	78.3%	73.4%	68.5%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	78.3%	73.4%	68.5%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	78.3%	73.4%	68.5%	46.9%	32.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	65.9%	73.4%	68.5%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	68.5%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:52+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	68.5%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	68.5%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	65.9%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	32.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	69.2%	46.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	69.2%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	74.0%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	74.0%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	52.1%	72.2%	74.0%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	70.3%	72.2%	74.0%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	70.3%	72.2%	74.0%	51.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	73.3%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	73.3%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	73.3%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	80.5%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	80.5%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	75.4%	70.5%	80.5%	53.0%	75.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	96.1%	70.5%	80.5%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	96.1%	70.5%	80.5%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	96.1%	70.5%	80.5%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	96.1%	70.5%	80.5%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	96.1%	70.5%	80.5%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	96.1%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	96.1%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	96.1%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	93.8%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	93.8%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	93.8%	70.7%	86.7%	77.6%	86.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	67.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	67.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	64.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	63.5°F	7.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗