KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

96%

95%

72%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.9¢Risks 84.95u

EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.05u · EPS −15.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	13.2%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	4.8%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	1.3%	1.7%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	58.4%	1.9%	6.0%	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	30.4%	79.0%	29.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	50.8%	53.8%	37.2%	—	56.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	30.1%	61.8%	55.6%	—	52.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	32.2%	55.0%	23.8%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	0.5%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	90.3%	43.0%	62.1%	—	40.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	35.9%	61.5%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	50.0%	33.0%	61.8%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	90.8%	47.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	94.4%	69.6%	77.5%	—	84.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	87.1%	77.4%	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	97.7%	78.8%	93.3%	0.0%	96.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	97.8%	93.8%	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	93.4%	98.9%	97.6%	—	96.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.8%	99.6%	0.6%	—	97.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	99.2%	99.8%	99.0%	0.0%	98.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.4%	99.9%	99.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.8%	99.9%	99.5%	98.7%	99.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.6%	99.9%	99.8%	—	99.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	96.0%	100.0%	99.8%	99.3%	99.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	72.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	96%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	68.7°F	9.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗