KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

96%

95%

72%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.9¢Risks 84.95u

EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.05u · EPS −15.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	75.3%	61.8%	71.2%	45.9%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	75.3%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	75.3%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	75.3%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	53.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	67.8%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	85.7%	58.5%	60.6%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	85.7%	58.5%	60.6%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	85.7%	58.5%	60.6%	45.9%	94.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	90.4%	58.5%	60.6%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	90.5%	58.4%	60.6%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	60.6%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	60.6%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	60.6%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	90.5%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	94.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	72.3%	53.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	72.3%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	92.8%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	88.7%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	91.5%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	91.5%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	93.7%	60.5%	91.5%	78.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	98.4%	60.5%	91.5%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	98.4%	60.5%	91.5%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	98.4%	60.5%	91.5%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	98.4%	60.5%	91.5%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	98.4%	60.5%	91.5%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	98.4%	72.0%	98.2%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	98.4%	72.0%	98.2%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	98.4%	72.0%	98.2%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	98.2%	72.0%	98.2%	95.3%	96.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	98.2%	71.7%	98.2%	95.3%	96.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	72.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	96%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	68.7°F	9.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗