KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

91%

70%

63%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 77.95u

ICONNO 22.0¢Risks 22.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.05u · ICON −22.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.2%	0.3%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	31.1%	0.3%	1.2%	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	10.6%	52.9%	10.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	22.8%	25.1%	13.8%	—	27.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	9.3%	30.9%	25.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	9.7%	23.8%	6.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	66.2%	14.6%	28.4%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	10.3%	27.1%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	17.8%	8.6%	26.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	64.8%	15.4%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	72.9%	32.1%	41.3%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	55.0%	40.1%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	83.0%	40.8%	67.9%	0.0%	76.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	83.1%	68.4%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	65.9%	88.6%	81.0%	—	77.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	96.2%	93.7%	0.0%	—	80.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	89.5%	94.9%	87.3%	0.0%	81.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	90.8%	96.0%	90.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	94.5%	97.5%	90.5%	83.4%	92.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	91.3%	96.0%	93.6%	—	89.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	65.7%	98.6%	93.5%	86.6%	88.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	96.5%	99.0%	95.3%	—	91.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	99.4%	99.3%	94.9%	91.6%	95.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	99.6%	96.3%	—	95.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	95%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	73.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	68.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗