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KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
HRES
92%
AIFS
91%
EPS
70%
ICON
63%
Consensus
90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 77.95u
VS
ICONNO 22.0¢Risks 22.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.05u · ICON −22.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 88.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00ICON: 63.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:0088.3%55.9%89.4%82.6%86.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0088.3%55.9%89.4%82.6%86.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0088.3%55.9%89.4%82.6%86.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0088.3%55.9%89.4%82.6%86.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0088.3%55.9%89.4%82.6%86.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:0091.2%55.9%89.4%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0091.2%55.9%89.4%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0091.2%55.9%89.4%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0091.2%55.9%89.4%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:0091.2%70.6%92.7%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0091.2%70.6%92.7%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:0091.2%70.6%92.7%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0091.2%70.6%92.7%91.8%63.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0091.2%70.0%92.7%91.8%63.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend95%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%72.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES92%73.2°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single91%73.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%71.0°F6.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON63%68.7°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%68.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗