KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

75%

69%

67%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.2¢Risks 37.60u

EPSNO 24.8¢Risks 12.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.40u · EPS −12.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	15.3%	0.1%	0.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	31.7%	3.3%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	9.3%	10.7%	4.8%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.7%	13.6%	10.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	2.7%	9.0%	1.5%	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.0%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	40.5%	4.3%	10.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	2.6%	10.0%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	5.3%	2.0%	9.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	37.0%	4.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	45.1%	11.6%	17.1%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	26.5%	15.8%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	57.2%	15.7%	37.8%	0.0%	47.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	56.3%	37.5%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	34.1%	64.9%	52.2%	—	46.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	82.5%	75.1%	0.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	64.8%	77.6%	60.4%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	66.4%	80.1%	65.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	74.4%	84.9%	64.6%	51.2%	69.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	65.1%	78.1%	70.9%	—	61.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	27.3%	88.0%	69.3%	54.0%	58.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	77.9%	90.2%	73.5%	—	63.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	92.2%	91.1%	70.7%	61.4%	72.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	93.0%	74.0%	—	70.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	72.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗