KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

75%

69%

67%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.2¢Risks 37.60u

EPSNO 24.8¢Risks 12.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.40u · EPS −12.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:19+00:00	12.0%	11.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	12.0%	11.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	12.0%	11.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	12.0%	11.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	12.0%	9.0%	4.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	12.0%	9.0%	4.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	12.0%	9.0%	4.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	12.0%	9.0%	4.2%	3.5%	5.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00	9.0%	8.5%	5.9%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	9.0%	17.4%	3.9%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	9.0%	17.4%	3.9%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	9.0%	17.4%	3.9%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	8.1%	17.4%	3.9%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	8.8%	17.5%	4.1%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	4.1%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	4.1%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	4.1%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	6.7%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	6.7%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	8.8%	17.3%	6.7%	5.5%	19.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	6.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	6.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	6.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	6.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	6.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	39.0%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	39.0%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	39.0%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	10.7%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	8.2%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	8.2%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	30.8%	17.0%	8.2%	18.1%	32.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	8.2%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	8.2%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	8.2%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	8.2%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	6.6%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	9.9%	17.0%	6.6%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	9.9%	27.7%	6.6%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	9.9%	27.7%	6.6%	31.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	26.6%	27.7%	6.6%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	26.6%	27.7%	6.6%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	6.6%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	6.6%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	7.2%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	7.2%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	7.2%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	26.6%	28.3%	7.2%	31.4%	12.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	35.9%	28.3%	7.2%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	35.9%	28.3%	7.2%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	35.9%	28.3%	7.2%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	35.9%	28.3%	7.2%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	35.9%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	35.8%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	35.8%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	12.6%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	13.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	32.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	32.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	32.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	32.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	32.4%	28.3%	10.7%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	32.4%	15.1%	5.3%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	32.4%	15.1%	5.3%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	32.4%	15.1%	5.3%	9.4%	54.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	41.4%	15.1%	5.3%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	41.4%	15.1%	5.3%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	5.3%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	5.3%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	5.3%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	41.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	54.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	13.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	13.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	13.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	9.8%	9.3%	13.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	9.8%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	47.4%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	25.1%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	30.5%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	30.5%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	50.0%	16.4%	30.5%	27.4%	13.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	69.6%	16.4%	30.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	69.6%	16.4%	30.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	69.6%	16.4%	30.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	69.6%	16.4%	30.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	69.6%	16.4%	30.5%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	69.6%	42.0%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	69.6%	42.0%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	69.6%	42.0%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	68.0%	42.0%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	68.0%	42.1%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	51.2%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	54.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	57.1%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	68.0%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	68.8%	42.3%	63.9%	60.6%	63.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	73.1%	42.3%	63.9%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	73.1%	42.3%	63.9%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	73.1%	42.3%	63.9%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	73.1%	42.3%	63.9%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	73.1%	53.1%	68.6%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	73.1%	53.1%	68.6%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	73.1%	53.1%	68.6%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	73.1%	53.1%	68.6%	74.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	73.1%	53.0%	68.6%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:10+00:00	73.1%	53.0%	68.6%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	73.1%	51.2%	68.6%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	73.1%	51.2%	68.6%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	73.1%	51.2%	74.1%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	73.1%	51.2%	74.1%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	73.1%	51.2%	74.1%	74.5%	30.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	74.1%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	74.1%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	74.1%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	74.1%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	74.1%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	69.8%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	71.9%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	73.0%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	73.0%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	71.4%	51.2%	73.0%	70.4%	61.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	75.3%	51.2%	73.0%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	75.3%	51.2%	73.0%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	75.3%	51.2%	73.0%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	75.3%	51.2%	73.0%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	75.3%	51.2%	73.0%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	75.3%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	75.3%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	75.3%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	76.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	77.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	77.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	71.2%	66.8%	77.5%	80.6%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	73.8%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	74.3%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	76.2%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	83.6%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	68.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	83.6%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	68.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	83.6%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	68.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	83.6%	66.8%	77.5%	75.0%	68.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	72.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗