KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

83%

80%

67%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.8¢Risks 37.90u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 12.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.10u · EPS −12.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.6%	76.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	71.4%	47.9%	0.8%	—	66.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	42.0%	33.7%	69.0%	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	58.3%	38.0%	19.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	85.1%	56.4%	71.2%	—	61.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	69.2%	30.0%	74.9%	—	68.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	6.7%	70.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	96.2%	88.7%	67.8%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	89.6%	91.9%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	95.7%	92.1%	78.4%	—	92.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	95.4%	92.3%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	97.3%	94.4%	81.7%	—	95.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	98.5%	97.2%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	98.3%	92.6%	84.9%	—	96.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	97.7%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	99.0%	98.4%	89.6%	—	98.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	97.9%	98.6%	2.6%	—	97.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	97.3%	98.7%	83.2%	0.0%	97.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	97.1%	98.1%	84.8%	—	98.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	99.6%	99.3%	88.2%	94.5%	99.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	99.0%	87.8%	—	99.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	99.0%	99.8%	91.6%	0.0%	98.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.1%	99.8%	83.6%	—	99.5%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.8%	99.7%	83.7%	97.9%	99.6%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.9%	99.8%	84.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.9%	100.0%	73.7%	97.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	70.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	68.9°F	7.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗