KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

83%

82%

72%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.6¢Risks 39.32u

HRESNO 21.4¢Risks 10.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +10.68u · HRES −10.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.1%	51.3%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	44.4%	22.4%	0.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	17.5%	12.4%	40.6%	—	28.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	28.9%	14.2%	5.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	59.5%	26.1%	40.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	36.9%	8.7%	43.4%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.9%	37.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	81.6%	62.9%	33.8%	—	68.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	64.1%	69.0%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	78.4%	68.6%	44.5%	—	69.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	76.9%	68.2%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	82.9%	72.9%	47.1%	—	76.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	88.1%	81.7%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	86.1%	66.0%	50.0%	—	78.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	82.4%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	89.1%	85.1%	56.5%	—	86.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	81.7%	85.9%	0.1%	—	77.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	77.6%	85.3%	41.9%	0.0%	78.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	75.6%	80.9%	42.8%	—	81.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	92.5%	88.2%	47.5%	63.4%	88.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	85.0%	44.9%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	98%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	96%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗