KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

83%

82%

72%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.6¢Risks 39.32u

HRESNO 21.4¢Risks 10.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +10.68u · HRES −10.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:43+00:00	37.4%	18.9%	15.8%	22.0%	7.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	37.4%	34.9%	13.9%	22.0%	7.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	37.4%	34.9%	13.9%	22.0%	7.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	37.4%	34.9%	13.9%	22.0%	7.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	39.5%	34.9%	13.9%	22.0%	7.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	39.5%	34.9%	14.1%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	14.1%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	14.1%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	14.1%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	12.8%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	12.8%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	39.5%	34.2%	12.8%	22.0%	7.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	12.8%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	12.8%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	12.8%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	12.8%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	12.8%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	44.3%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	24.9%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	18.5%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	18.5%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	28.5%	34.2%	18.5%	40.0%	64.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	18.5%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	18.5%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	18.5%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	18.5%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	44.1%	34.2%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	44.1%	37.4%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	44.1%	37.4%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	40.5%	37.5%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	40.5%	37.5%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	19.6%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	26.7%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	26.7%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	26.7%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	40.5%	38.2%	26.7%	35.2%	41.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	26.7%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	26.7%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	26.7%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	26.7%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	53.0%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	31.1%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	52.2%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	53.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	33.4%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	54.0%	45.3%	28.8%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	54.0%	45.3%	28.8%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	54.0%	45.3%	28.8%	57.2%	74.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	54.8%	45.3%	28.8%	51.4%	74.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	54.8%	45.3%	28.8%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	28.8%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	28.8%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	28.8%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	54.8%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	45.2%	51.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	45.2%	60.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	50.0%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	63.3%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	63.3%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	58.0%	46.9%	63.3%	60.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	72.2%	46.9%	63.3%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	72.2%	46.9%	63.3%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	72.2%	46.9%	63.3%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	72.2%	46.9%	63.3%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	72.2%	46.9%	63.3%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	72.2%	66.5%	77.4%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	72.2%	66.5%	77.4%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	72.2%	66.5%	77.4%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	69.2%	66.5%	77.4%	55.6%	88.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	77.4%	55.6%	88.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:49+00:00	75.7%	67.2%	79.7%	75.2%	85.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	75.7%	67.2%	79.7%	75.2%	85.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	75.7%	67.2%	79.7%	75.2%	85.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	75.7%	67.2%	79.7%	75.2%	85.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	75.7%	67.2%	79.7%	75.2%	85.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	80.0%	67.2%	79.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	80.0%	67.2%	79.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	80.0%	67.2%	79.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	80.0%	67.2%	79.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	80.0%	74.9%	85.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	80.0%	74.9%	85.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	80.0%	74.9%	85.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	80.0%	74.9%	85.7%	82.6%	87.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	78.0%	74.2%	85.7%	82.7%	87.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	78.0%	72.7%	79.7%	79.0%	89.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	78.0%	72.7%	78.8%	79.0%	89.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	78.0%	72.7%	78.8%	79.0%	89.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	78.0%	72.7%	78.8%	79.0%	89.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	83.2%	72.7%	78.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	83.2%	72.7%	78.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	83.2%	72.7%	78.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	83.2%	72.7%	78.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	83.2%	72.7%	78.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	83.2%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	83.2%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	83.2%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	79.9%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	80.3%	88.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	80.8%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	80.0%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T04:05:41+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	84.5%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	74.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	85.2%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	83.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	85.2%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	83.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	85.2%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	83.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	85.2%	83.0%	81.7%	72.1%	83.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	98%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	96%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗