KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

72%

70%

70%

66%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 75.0¢Risks 37.52u

EPSNO 25.0¢Risks 12.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +12.48u · EPS −12.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.0%	44.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	37.6%	17.5%	0.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	13.2%	9.0%	33.7%	—	22.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	22.8%	10.3%	3.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	51.6%	20.1%	33.0%	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	29.3%	5.8%	35.3%	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	0.5%	29.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	75.2%	54.4%	26.2%	—	60.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	55.4%	60.7%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	71.0%	60.0%	35.6%	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	69.1%	59.4%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	76.0%	64.3%	37.6%	—	67.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	82.3%	74.3%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	79.5%	56.1%	39.8%	—	70.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	74.7%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	83.1%	77.8%	45.6%	—	79.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	73.3%	78.6%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	68.0%	77.6%	31.0%	0.0%	69.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	65.3%	71.7%	31.4%	—	72.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	87.0%	80.9%	35.4%	51.2%	81.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	76.2%	32.5%	—	80.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	74.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	72.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗