KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

72%

70%

70%

66%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 75.0¢Risks 37.52u

EPSNO 25.0¢Risks 12.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +12.48u · EPS −12.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:10+00:00	70.5%	68.2%	78.0%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	78.0%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	78.0%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	80.5%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	80.5%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	80.5%	76.3%	81.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	80.5%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	80.5%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	80.5%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	80.5%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	80.5%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	66.3%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	70.5%	66.5%	70.3%	72.0%	83.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	74.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	73.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	72.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗