KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

47%

44%

42%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.65u · ICON −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	31.8%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	25.2%	9.9%	0.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.9%	4.4%	21.5%	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	12.9%	5.0%	1.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	35.9%	10.8%	20.1%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.8%	2.3%	21.3%	—	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.1%	16.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	59.6%	37.1%	14.1%	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	37.6%	42.9%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	53.7%	41.8%	20.3%	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	50.9%	40.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	58.7%	45.1%	21.0%	—	49.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	66.5%	56.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	62.2%	35.9%	21.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	65.9%	58.7%	25.5%	—	60.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	52.2%	59.0%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	45.4%	57.0%	14.0%	0.0%	46.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	41.6%	48.8%	13.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	69.2%	59.9%	15.9%	27.6%	61.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	52.6%	13.5%	—	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	73.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗