KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

47%

44%

42%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

ICONNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.65u · ICON −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:47+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	51.1%	53.2%	66.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	51.1%	53.2%	66.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	51.1%	53.2%	66.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	51.1%	53.2%	66.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	51.1%	53.2%	66.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	55.6%	50.0%	51.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	55.6%	50.0%	51.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	55.6%	50.0%	51.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	55.6%	50.0%	51.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	57.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	57.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	57.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	57.1%	60.6%	65.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	52.8%	54.9%	57.1%	60.6%	65.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	47.6%	55.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	46.5%	55.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	46.5%	55.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	46.5%	55.4%	68.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	58.8%	52.8%	46.5%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	58.8%	52.8%	46.5%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	58.8%	52.8%	46.5%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	58.8%	52.8%	46.5%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	58.8%	52.8%	46.5%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	58.8%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	58.8%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	58.8%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	54.9%	63.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	46.1%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	53.9%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	60.7%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	60.7%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	60.7%	62.5%	47.4%	44.2%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	73.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗