KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

41%

32%

32%

24%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.0¢Risks 16.48u

WN2NO 67.0¢Risks 33.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.52u · WN2 −33.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.0%	20.8%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	15.3%	5.1%	0.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	3.2%	1.9%	12.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	22.4%	5.1%	10.8%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.3%	0.8%	11.2%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	42.2%	22.1%	6.5%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	22.2%	26.4%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	35.6%	25.1%	9.8%	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	32.6%	23.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	39.4%	27.1%	9.8%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	47.0%	36.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	41.8%	19.0%	9.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	34.5%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	44.5%	37.1%	11.4%	—	39.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	30.5%	36.7%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	24.2%	34.1%	4.8%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	20.8%	26.3%	4.5%	—	27.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	45.0%	35.4%	5.2%	11.2%	36.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	28.0%	4.0%	—	33.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	73.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	74.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗