KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

66%

51%

46%

34%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

WN2NO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	55.8%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	7.5%	40.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	46.5%	30.5%	8.5%	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	6.6%	45.6%	68.3%	—	40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	33.0%	1.6%	59.1%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	27.4%	73.2%	24.8%	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	67.4%	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	73.5%	78.7%	57.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	10.3%	61.8%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	28.4%	68.6%	75.2%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	54.5%	69.0%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	44.5%	56.4%	43.6%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	37.9%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	28.7%	77.5%	37.6%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	7.3%	93.0%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	29.4%	79.5%	44.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	40.6%	78.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	82.4%	80.2%	41.3%	44.5%	46.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	77.7%	7.9%	—	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	69.0°F	9.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	62.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	61.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	60.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗