KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

66%

51%

46%

34%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

WN2NO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	57.1%	70.4%	41.3%	42.5%	34.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	57.1%	70.4%	41.3%	42.5%	34.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	57.1%	74.6%	41.3%	42.5%	34.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	57.1%	74.6%	41.3%	42.5%	34.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	57.7%	74.6%	41.4%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	57.7%	74.6%	41.4%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	41.4%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	41.4%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	39.1%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	39.1%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	39.1%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	57.7%	75.9%	39.1%	42.6%	34.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	39.1%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	39.1%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	39.1%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	39.1%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	17.2%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	45.8%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	45.8%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	45.8%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	45.8%	75.9%	34.0%	50.6%	66.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	69.0°F	9.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	62.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	61.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	60.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 63°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗