KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

58%

54%

50%

26%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

ICONNO 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.85u · ICON −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	56.3%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	5.4%	34.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	39.6%	24.6%	6.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	4.6%	38.5%	61.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	26.4%	1.0%	51.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	21.2%	66.3%	18.9%	—	54.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	59.7%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	66.2%	72.1%	49.2%	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	7.0%	53.4%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	21.4%	60.4%	67.8%	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	45.5%	60.7%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	35.6%	47.2%	34.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	29.2%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	21.0%	69.6%	28.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	4.4%	89.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	21.2%	71.5%	34.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.7%	69.3%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	74.5%	71.8%	31.1%	34.1%	36.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	68.5%	4.5%	—	30.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	63.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗