KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

58%

54%

50%

26%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

ICONNO 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.85u · ICON −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:49+00:00	53.2%	94.2%	30.5%	19.4%	77.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	53.2%	94.2%	39.4%	19.4%	77.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	53.2%	94.2%	39.4%	19.4%	77.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	53.2%	94.2%	39.4%	19.4%	77.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	53.2%	94.2%	39.4%	19.4%	77.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	59.5%	94.2%	39.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	59.5%	94.2%	39.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	59.5%	94.2%	39.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	59.5%	94.2%	39.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	59.5%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	59.5%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	59.5%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	59.5%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	58.6%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	58.6%	96.8%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	58.6%	96.3%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	58.6%	96.3%	37.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	58.6%	96.3%	38.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	58.6%	96.3%	38.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	58.6%	96.3%	38.4%	27.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	38.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	38.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	38.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	38.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	38.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	48.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	34.4%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	52.1%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	52.1%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	60.3%	96.3%	52.1%	10.4%	50.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	62.8%	96.3%	52.1%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	62.8%	96.3%	52.1%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	62.8%	96.3%	52.1%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	62.8%	96.3%	52.1%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	62.8%	96.3%	52.1%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	62.8%	98.6%	53.5%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	62.8%	98.6%	53.5%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	62.8%	98.6%	53.5%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	50.0%	98.6%	53.5%	58.0%	25.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	50.0%	98.6%	53.6%	58.0%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	64.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	63.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	63.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗