KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

79%

72%

67%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

WN2NO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.35u · WN2 −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	11.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	8.2%	4.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	67.0%	49.3%	13.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	56.6%	42.7%	33.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	67.0%	69.7%	38.7%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	70.1%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	67.7%	68.4%	54.0%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	29.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	78.7%	66.2%	50.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	6.4%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	75.2%	76.6%	67.0%	—	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	69.0%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	62.7%	76.3%	68.6%	—	47.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	69.9%	76.9%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	72.1%	74.5%	61.5%	40.4%	45.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	74.3%	—	—	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	63.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	62.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	60.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗