KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

79%

72%

67%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

WN2NO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.35u · WN2 −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	64.6%	59.8%	35.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	55.5%	84.9%	64.5%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	64.5%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	64.5%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	64.5%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	55.5%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	35.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	76.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	76.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	76.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	63.1%	59.8%	76.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	63.1%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	61.6%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	56.2%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	56.2%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	56.2%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	56.2%	86.0%	59.3%	45.1%	76.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	77.3%	84.3%	58.7%	39.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	77.3%	84.3%	64.2%	39.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	77.3%	84.3%	64.2%	39.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	77.3%	84.3%	64.2%	39.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	78.4%	84.3%	64.2%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	78.4%	84.3%	64.2%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	78.4%	84.3%	64.2%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	78.4%	84.3%	64.2%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	78.4%	84.3%	64.2%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	78.4%	92.7%	66.6%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	78.4%	92.7%	66.6%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	78.4%	92.7%	66.6%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	79.0%	92.7%	66.6%	71.9%	83.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	79.0%	92.7%	66.6%	71.9%	83.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	63.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	62.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	60.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗