KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

51%

45%

36%

25%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

WN2NO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.50u · WN2 −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	26.8%	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	2.9%	1.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	46.5%	29.2%	5.2%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	35.0%	23.2%	16.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	44.7%	47.7%	19.5%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	47.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	44.4%	45.2%	30.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	56.6%	41.7%	26.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	1.5%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	50.9%	52.6%	41.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	42.9%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	35.6%	50.9%	41.8%	—	22.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	42.5%	50.9%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	44.2%	47.1%	33.0%	16.5%	19.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	46.0%	—	—	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	62.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	61.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	59.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	59.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗