KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

80%

67%

66%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 36.90u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 13.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.10u · HRES −13.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	94.5%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	3.6%	85.7%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	57.7%	90.4%	7.2%	—	40.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	29.7%	93.1%	12.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	9.3%	63.5%	21.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	90.0%	67.0%	28.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.7%	82.2%	12.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	1.7%	81.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	53.5%	96.9%	59.6%	0.6%	59.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	94.0%	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	88.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	65.1°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗