KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

81%

80%

67%

66%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 36.90u

HRESNO 26.2¢Risks 13.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.10u · HRES −13.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	20.2%	85.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	20.2%	85.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	20.2%	85.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	7.4%	85.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	7.4%	85.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	51.6%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	61.5%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	61.5%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	61.5%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	7.4%	86.7%	61.5%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	61.5%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	61.5%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	61.5%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	61.5%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	8.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	10.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	10.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	10.5%	86.7%	34.8%	81.2%	72.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	89.2%	85.6%	78.2%	18.4%	19.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	89.2%	85.6%	78.2%	18.4%	19.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	89.2%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	19.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	89.2%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	19.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	89.2%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	19.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	80.3%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	66.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	80.3%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	66.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	80.3%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	66.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	80.3%	85.6%	87.9%	18.4%	66.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.5%	66.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.5%	66.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.5%	66.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.5%	66.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.6%	66.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	80.3%	81.1%	82.0%	65.6%	66.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	65.1°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗