KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

65%

38%

21%

12%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.3¢Risks 42.30u

AIFSNO 57.7¢Risks 57.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.70u · AIFS −57.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	89.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.6%	76.7%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	43.7%	82.9%	3.5%	—	27.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	18.4%	86.9%	6.2%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	4.4%	48.5%	12.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	81.1%	51.6%	16.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	69.2%	5.8%	—	11.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	0.5%	68.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	36.3%	92.3%	42.2%	0.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	86.5%	—	—	72.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	62.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	58.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	52.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	53.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗