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KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
73%
WN2
65%
HRES
38%
ICON
21%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.3¢Risks 42.30u
VS
AIFSNO 57.7¢Risks 57.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.70u · AIFS −57.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:0011.8%72.8%65.0%37.8%21.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:0011.8%72.8%65.0%37.8%21.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:0011.8%72.8%65.0%37.8%21.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0011.8%72.8%65.0%37.8%21.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0011.8%72.8%65.0%37.8%21.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble73%63.9°F5.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 265%62.6°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend53%61.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%58.5°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON21%52.5°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%53.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗