KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

73%

63%

60%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

AIFSNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.30u · AIFS −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	17.3%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	97.7%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.8%	95.0%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	15.3%	56.3%	3.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	41.3%	9.0%	33.7%	—	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	43.9%	93.7%	5.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	87.3%	94.3%	69.2%	9.0%	69.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	98.2%	—	—	84.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	67.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	66.1°F	10.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	62.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	60.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗